Christmas Number 1 Betting Odds
Get in the festive spirit by betting on who will take the top spot as the UK’s Christmas Number One this year. Wham! leads the odds as the favourite, followed closely by Band Aid 40, Mariah Carey, and Liam Payne.
Compare odds and place your bets on your favourite contender for the 2024 Christmas crown!
Christmas Specials Betting Odds
Check out the latest odds for the UK Christmas Number One winner, as decided by The Official Charts Company.
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William Hill 
Ladbrokes 
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BetVictor 
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Unibet 
BetMGM 
Betfred 
The Favourites to Win Christmas Number One
- Band Aid 40 with odds 11/5 on bet365
- Wham! with odds 12/5 on bet365
- Mariah Carey with odds 5/1 on bet365
- Liam Payne with odds 15/2 on bet365
- Reverend and the Makers with odds 9/1 on William Hill
- Wes Nelson with odds 12/1 on bet365
- McFly with odds 14/1 on bet365
- Tom Grennan with odds 14/1 on bet365
- Gorillaz with odds 16/1 on bet365
- Cliff Richard with odds 20/1 on bet365
Probability to Win Christmas Number 1
With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability of winning Christmas Number One, according to the bookmakers.
| Acts | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Band Aid 40 | 11/5 | 31.25% |
| Wham! | 12/5 | 29.41% |
| Mariah Carey | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Liam Payne | 15/2 | 11.76% |
| Reverend and the Makers | 9/1 | 10.00% |
| Wes Nelson | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| McFly | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Tom Grennan | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Gorillaz | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Cliff Richard | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| One Direction | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Richard Ashcroft | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Ed Sheeran | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Gok Wan feat House Gospel Choir | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Perrie | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Ricky Warwick | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Brian Harvey | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Taylor Swift | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Yachtley Crew | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Oasis | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| AJ/Big Justice | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Chris Simmons | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Emeli Sande | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Sam Ryder | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| KSI | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| The Pogues | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Gracie Abrams | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Harry Styles | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| RAYE | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Sam Fender | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Sidemen | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Adele | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Chappell Roan | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Dua Lipa | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Slade | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Coldplay | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| East 17 | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Lady Gaga | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Wizzard | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Billie Eilish | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Gigi Perez | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| The Cure | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Andrea Bocelli | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ariana Grande | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Benson Boone | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Brad Kella | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Brenda Lee | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Britney Spears | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charli XCX | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Chris Rea | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Cian Ducrot | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Cynthia Erivo | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Dear Alice | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ella Henderson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Elton John | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Fred Again | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Girls Aloud | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jack Harlow | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jose Feliciano | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Justin Bieber | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kate Bush | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lewis Capaldi | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Michael Buble | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Diamond | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Noah Kahan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rihanna | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robbie Williams | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| S Club | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sam Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Shakin Stevens | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Tate McRae | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Teddy Swims | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| The Beatles | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| V/Bing Crosby | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Who is the Favourite to Win Christmas Number One?
As of 4 December 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to win Christmas Number One is Band Aid 40, best priced at 11/5 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Band Aid 40 to win Xmas number 1 is 31.25%.
Favourites to be the UK's Christmas Number One 2024
Here’s a glimpse at some of the contenders vying for the 2024 UK Christmas Number One spot:
Please note the odds were accurate at the time of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, refer to the list above.
Band Aid 40 - Do They Know It's Christmas? (5/4)
A classic from UK chart history, Do They Know It's Christmas?, has returned with a fresh mix to celebrate Band Aid's 40th anniversary.
However, the release has not been without controversy. Ed Sheeran has publicly criticized the use of his vocals, stating that he was not consulted and would have declined permission if asked. This backlash could impact the song's prospects of reclaiming the Christmas Number One title this year.
Wham - Last Christmas (12/5)
Nearly four decades after its debut, Last Christmas by Wham! achieved the coveted Christmas Number One spot in 2023.
With streaming now playing a major role in determining chart rankings, this timeless classic is once again a leading contender in the betting odds for this year's Christmas Number One.
Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You (5/1)
Originally released in 1994, All I Want For Christmas Is You is celebrating its 30th anniversary this year. What better way to mark the milestone than by taking the coveted Christmas Number One spot in the UK?
A holiday favorite that dominates airwaves starting in mid-November, Mariah Carey’s iconic hit was famously beaten to the top spot by East 17’s Stay Another Day during its debut year but finally reached Number One in 2020.
Liam Payne - All I Want (For Christmas) (15/2)
The recent passing of Liam Payne has inspired a heartfelt fan campaign to propel his 2019 single All I Want (For Christmas) to the top of the festive charts.
Although the ballad saw modest success upon its original release, the dedication of One Direction fans could drive it to a strong position in this year’s Christmas rankings. Additionally, other songs by Liam Payne are expected to re-enter the charts, making him a popular choice for bets on the Christmas Number One.
Reverend and the Makers - Late Night Phonecall (9/1)
The Sheffield indie band may be an unexpected contender in the Christmas Number One betting odds, but their new single, Late Night Phonecall, is supporting Samaritans. Charity tracks often perform strongly in the charts, giving this release a solid chance.
Tom Grennan - It Can't Be Christmas (14/1)
Tom Grennan has entered the race for Christmas Number One with his new 2024 release, It Can't Be Christmas. However, its exclusive availability on Amazon Music might hinder its chances of securing the top spot.
Having reached the top 10 only twice—most notably with Little Bit of Love, which peaked at number seven in 2017—Grennan's prospects for clinching the Christmas Number One title this year appear limited.
One Direction - Any song (20/1)
Bookmakers are playing it safe, as several of One Direction’s biggest hits have re-entered the charts following Liam Payne’s recent passing.
Tracks like Night Changes, Story of My Life, and What Makes You Beautiful are all contenders, but a solo Liam Payne song could stand a stronger chance of reaching the coveted Christmas Number One spot.
Richard Ashcroft - Sonnet (20/1)
Richard Ashcroft, former lead singer of The Verve, has created an acoustic rendition of the band’s iconic track Sonnet for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert, which often produces a seasonal chart favorite.
Christmas Number One Long Shots
Some of the world's biggest pop stars are in contention for the UK's Christmas Number One in 2024.
Ed Sheeran (25/1) could secure the title for a third time after topping the charts with Perfect in 2017 and appearing on the LadBaby charity single Sausage Rolls for Everyone alongside Elton John in 2021. His new festive track Under The Tree is expected to draw significant streams from his massive fanbase.
Taylor Swift, also at 25/1, is chasing her first UK Christmas Number One. Sabrina Carpenter (33/1), who has enjoyed major success in 2024 with hits like Espresso and Taste, could end the year on a high note by taking the festive top spot.
Rock fans might back Ricky Warwick’s Christmas single All I Want For Christmas… Is Christmas! Featuring Billy Duffy of The Cult and Joe Elliott of Def Leppard, the track is currently priced at 25/1.
Perrie (25/1) from Little Mix is in the running with her solo release Christmas Magic. Her former band narrowly missed a Christmas Number One in 2011 when their chart-topping cover of Damien Rice’s Cannonball was overtaken by Military Wives and Gareth Malone’s Wherever You Are.
Cliff Richard (40/1) could return to the spotlight, having already claimed four Christmas Number Ones in his career—two as a solo artist and one each with Band Aid II and The Shadows.
Oasis, who announced their comeback this year with tickets selling out instantly, are priced at 40/1 by some bookmakers and as low as 10/1 by others.
Meanwhile, most bookmakers have yet to list odds for Gigi Perez’s recent chart-topper Sailor Song.
Previous UK Christmas Number One Winners
What insights can we gain from reviewing past UK Christmas Number One winners?
In recent years, social media influencers, television talent show winners, and occasional protest tracks like Rage Against the Machine’s surprise victory have claimed the title.
Betting on Reality TV Shows, including predicting the next Christmas Number One, has become increasingly popular as fans look to get involved in the action.
LadBaby, the duo of Mark and Roxanne Hoyle, dominated for five consecutive years with their food-themed charity singles supporting the Trussell Trust, featuring hits like I Love Sausage Rolls and Food Aid.
This streak ended in 2023 when Wham! claimed the top spot with their classic Last Christmas. The festive favourite is once again in the running this year. George Michael, who famously held both first and second place in 1984 with Band Aid and Wham!, might achieve a similar feat this time.
It has now been a decade since a TV talent show contestant last achieved Christmas Number One, with Ben Haenow's Something I Need marking the end of an era dominated by such winners.
During that period, other TV talent stars like Girls Aloud (Sound of the Underground), Shayne Ward (That's My Goal), Leona Lewis (A Moment Like This), Leon Jackson (When You Believe), and Alexandra Burke (Hallelujah) all took the festive crown.
Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody remains the only song to top the UK Christmas chart twice, achieving the honour in both 1975 and 1991.
If Last Christmas by Wham! retains its crown, it would match Queen's record and further cement George Michael's legacy in festive chart history.
UK Christmas Number One Singles
| Year | Artist | Song Title |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wham! | Last Christmas |
| 2022 | LadBaby featuring Martin Lewis and The Food Bank Choir | Food Aid |
| 2021 | LadBaby featuring Ed Sheeran and Elton John | Sausage Rolls for Everyone |
| 2020 | LadBaby | Don't Stop Me Eatin' |
| 2019 | LadBaby | I Love Sausage Rolls |
| 2018 | LadBaby | We Built This City |
| 2017 | Ed Sheeran | Perfect |
| 2016 | Clean Bandit featuring Sean Paul and Anne-Marie | Rockabye |
| 2015 | Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Choir | A Bridge Over You |
| 2014 | Ben Haenow | Something I Need |
| 2013 | Sam Bailey | Skyscraper |
| 2012 | The Justice Collective | He Ain't Heavy, He's My Brother |
| 2011 | Military Wives with Gareth Malone | Wherever You Are |
| 2010 | Matt Cardle | When We Collide |
| 2009 | Rage Against the Machine | Killing in the Name |
| 2008 | Alexandra Burke | Hallelujah |
| 2007 | Leon Jackson | When You Believe |
| 2006 | Leona Lewis | A Moment Like This |
| 2005 | Shayne Ward | That's My Goal |
| 2004 | Band Aid 20 | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 2003 | Michael Andrews and Gary Jules | Mad World |
| 2002 | Girls Aloud | Sound of the Underground |
| 2001 | Robbie Williams and Nicole Kidman | Somethin' Stupid |
| 2000 | Bob the Builder | Can We Fix It? |
| 1999 | Westlife | I Have a Dream / Seasons in the Sun |
| 1998 | Spice Girls | Goodbye |
| 1997 | Spice Girls | Too Much |
| 1996 | Spice Girls | 2 Become 1 |
| 1995 | Michael Jackson | Earth Song |
| 1994 | East 17 | Stay Another Day |
| 1993 | Mr Blobby | Mr Blobby |
| 1992 | Whitney Houston | I Will Always Love You |
| 1991 | Queen | Bohemian Rhapsody / These Are the Days of Our Lives |
| 1990 | Cliff Richard | Saviour's Day |
| 1989 | Band Aid II | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 1988 | Cliff Richard | Mistletoe and Wine |
| 1987 | Pet Shop Boys | Always on My Mind |
| 1986 | Jackie Wilson | Reet Petite |
| 1985 | Shakin' Stevens | Merry Christmas Everyone |
| 1984 | Band Aid | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 1983 | The Flying Pickets | Only You |
| 1982 | Renée and Renato | Save Your Love |
| 1981 | The Human League | Don't You Want Me |
| 1980 | St. Winifred's School Choir | There's No One Quite Like Grandma |
| 1979 | Pink Floyd | Another Brick in the Wall (Part 2) |
| 1978 | Boney M. | Mary's Boy Child – Oh My Lord |
| 1977 | Wings | Mull of Kintyre / Girls' School |
| 1976 | Johnny Mathis | When a Child Is Born (Soleado) |
| 1975 | Queen | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| 1974 | Mud | Lonely This Christmas |
| 1973 | Slade | Merry Xmas Everybody |
| 1972 | Little Jimmy Osmond | Long Haired Lover from Liverpool |
| 1971 | Benny Hill | Ernie (The Fastest Milkman in the West) |
| 1970 | Dave Edmunds | I Hear You Knocking |
| 1969 | Rolf Harris | Two Little Boys |
| 1968 | Scaffold | Lily the Pink |
| 1967 | The Beatles | Hello, Goodbye |
| 1966 | Tom Jones | Green, Green Grass of Home |
| 1965 | The Beatles | Day Tripper / We Can Work It Out |
| 1964 | The Beatles | I Feel Fine |
| 1963 | The Beatles | I Want to Hold Your Hand |
| 1962 | Elvis Presley | Return to Sender |
| 1961 | Danny Williams | Moon River |
| 1960 | Cliff Richard and The Shadows | I Love You |
| 1959 | Emile Ford and the Checkmates | What Do You Want to Make Those Eyes at Me For? |
| 1958 | Conway Twitty | It's Only Make Believe |
| 1957 | Harry Belafonte | Mary's Boy Child |
| 1956 | Johnnie Ray | Just Walkin' in the Rain |
| 1955 | Dickie Valentine | Christmas Alphabet |
| 1954 | Winifred Atwell | Let's Have Another Party |
| 1953 | Frankie Laine | Answer Me |
| 1952 | Al Martino | Here in My Heart |